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The beginning
With the announcement of Blackrock releasing some kind of Bitcoin ETF, I knew I had to hop back on this website to write. You’ve heard a million different influenzas tell you that “the bankers want your Bitcoin” and you’re a fool for selling for less than $500,000 a coin.
Well, they’re actually right. Remember the time Su Zhu told everyone there would be a supercycle? We’re in it.
I don’t want to alarm you, believe me, we’ve had enough of that. Don’t check the charts. It just keeps getting worse. However, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think we were in the most super of cycles. It’s so obvious, except it really isn’t.
I’ve only really been here since 2021. Even then, I didn’t pay a ton of attention. I sold all my Solana at like $30 each because I needed money to buy an NFT. We all know what happened next - one went up like 5x, the other, uh, didn’t. Moving on.
I never expected my substack to get any attention. I’ve talked about it before, but I wrote a ton of articles for the school newspaper for 2 years. Combined, these probably never got more attention than a quarter of the engagements I get on a stupid “gm” tweet. It’s kind of sad when you think about it with these metrics.
Why am I qualified to tell you it’s a super cycle? I’m not. It just makes the most sense to me. We’ve got an asset class with a market capitalization of over $1.5 trillion and we’re in the midst of god only knows how much inflation and chaos. Russia is supposedly invading Ukraine, we’re on the 17th COVID-19 variant and Michael Saylor owns 17,000 Bitcoin - what the fuck is happening?
And it’s not just Saylor.
Why else would so many big players and institutions be messing around with the orange coin and talking about it? Why is Goldman Sachs doing analysis on DeFi and OlympusDAO? Why is inflation going crazy and making everyone so mind numbingly mad? Why did Zuck change the name of his conglomerate? Why did Jack resign from twitter? Why is Putin stealing your Bitcoin? Why is China banning Bitcoin for the 9,000th time?
Answer these yourself - I don’t have time to explain it.
Intermission
24/7 trading should have never been given to us. This wasn’t made for humans. Waking up to a 10% increase in net worth? Cool. Waking up to losing all your money and $400 left to your name because orange coin went down 5%? Not very cool.
Regardless, we trade these markets because they’ve been given to us. We’re living in a wild time that will never be allowed again. One day when we’re all eating bugs and crying in a pod, we’ll be wishing Inversebrah was still telling us to observe the daily close. We’ll be looking back fondly on the days of 0xSifu stealing all our money or getting liquidated on FTX.
There are no rules.
DeFi is a total wild west and it’s kind of unbelievable this is still able to happen on the level it is. The government shut down everything in March 2020 because of the virus, but we’re allowed to trade shitcoins and post about it on Twitter with impunity because… everyone running the country is too old to understand how Facebook turns a profit?
The day will come where someone is gonna shut down our little casino. We’ve been having a lot of fun with this mmorpg, but there will come a time where it’ll become regulated like any other market. The part about this being an mmorpg is true, it just functions a little differently. Instead of faction leaders or PvP arenas, we have NFT minters, a Safemoon Army and on-chain wizards trading the daily chart against the same 20 neckbeards. It’s poetic, really.
Institutions will try to assimilate with our culture, but they’ll fail miserably. Hell, we miss a day on Crypto Twitter and it’s a struggle to pick up where you left off. How is 36 year old Mark from JP Morgan supposed to create a 0x femboy twitter account and discuss novel DeFi primitives when he doesn’t even know what Dogecoin is? Until these days draw to an end, let’s just try and get rich.
As much as we want to imagine any of this is sophisticated, even the venture funds don’t know what they’re doing. I’d say less than 5% of VCs have any clue how to spend their money, because it seems like they’re just throwing darts at a wall and wishing they wouldn’t have sold their army of apes to get into the most recent P2E shitcoin round.
I really enjoy being able to engage in degenerate activities on the internet with all my anon friends. It’s a very good time. I really wouldn’t want it any other way, even though my net worth has remained stagnant this past four or five months.
Through sharing my ramblings on substack & twitter i’ve developed quite the audience and made a ton of great friends from around the world in the process. Web2 could never give us these opportunities. I hate browsing any web2 app like Instagram or Snapchat - the only one that’s (somewhat) tolerable is Twitter. Even then, that’s a stretch.
Buckle up
The worst part of all this is losing money, but I don’t think it’ll continue for much longer. I honestly think we’re going to see this play out like how the internet bubble did, where it burst and everybody cried and moaned for a few years until institutions ran it back turbo and Amazon bought out the government. I guess that last part hasn’t happened yet, but you get the idea. Sure, in the time that internet stocks went down, everyone thought the internet and computers sucked and were deemed totally valueless. Wonder how they feel now?
Yeah, in the short term Solana and Ethereum might be worth zero united states dollars, but give it a few years. I know, it’s not exacty contarian to think everything is going to go to zero. Everyone on crypto twitter would love a bear market, because they think they’d be able to buy the pico bottom and sell the top 10 years later. I’m sure that worked out well for whoever sold their AAPL for a big 75% gain after IPO.
pRoFiT iS pRoFiT, right?
You’re gonna drawdown hard. You’re gonna like it. You’re gonna have to pick up some extra shifts at McDonald’s to buy the dip. In ten years, it’s not gonna matter.
Maybe you’re all torn up right now because you bought Bitcoin in your Roth IRA two months ago when Barry Silbert said it was a big week. I know I am. But does this price action really matter when it’s so glaringly obvious that Bitcoin will be worth $250,000 in three years? We both know the answer.
Stop crying on Twitter that your $2,000 portfolio drew down this month and go buckle up for the ride.
it's a pleasure to read your articles as someone just getting into CT, keep writing please :)
Def called me out with the $2000 portfolio